Well well well. We made it through the 2023 season and ONCE AGAIN as expected, the San Francisco 49ers shit then fell in it. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of assholes. Luckily, they went “win-now” and have no cap space or draft assets for the foreseeable future. Some trends developing coming out of the NFL Combine this past weekend. Remember that the Combine is a fun media exercise and the measurables are an interest piece, but the real value of the event is player interviews and medicals. No one in the NFL fucks on the first date. These GMs are ALL risk-averse business managers. The consensus-building among scouts really begins to form teams’ Big Boards. They want to know what makes these players tick and red flag guys based on character or medical concerns so they don’t have to waste precious time throughout this critical phase of the evaluation process.

Next are the market dynamics. More positional depth, the longer these compulsive gamblers can wait to select from that acceptable pool of equivalent talent. This year, you have depth at WR, OL & CB. I mean Day 1 type of waiting, not Day 3. So the less rare a talent pool is, the longer you can wait to grab one. Even so far as to take a stab at a high ceiling pick with your first Round 1 selection, then move up into Day 1 again, from Round 2 to secure the last of that tier of player. It’s fairly common, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened again for those who find the early QB action too rich for their blood. The Seahawks could really use that 2nd they spent on a Leo Williams rental for Pete’s miserable failure of a swan song.

Who’s hot? Quarterbacks, because quarterbacks, amirite? Let’s talk about positional value. PV is overstated in today’s MSM and it’s just as valid to be true to your PV process on Day 2 as it is to just hammer your Round 1 pick with tired dogma year-in, year-out. BPA is a function of positional value, but there’s some flexibility there when you consider what’s most important to your coaching schemes. The Chiefs have the best process in the league currently, and they’re a #1 Seed in the AFC because persistence pays off. They have an MVP in Patrick Mahomes, sure, but he can’t do it alone. Looks at those DBs. That is PV & BPA for years. They’ve done so well they have the luxury of trading L’Jarius Sneed for a second rounder instead of paying him top CB dollar for depth behind McDuffie. I also always love Baltimore drafts for these same reasons. You know who else is a PV dawg? Ya boi John Schneider. Raise your hand if you thought he was going CB at 1.5 then WR at 1.20 with DK, TDL already on big deals and Riq being a DROY name. None of you. Not one. But that’s my dawg right there. I knew he had it in him even though he hadn’t yet had the opportunity to burn the Pete Carroll narratives in previously drafts.

Defining need: The SCHEME is the need. Clubs think of it differently than fans. “Need” is an oversimplification of a much deeper roster building process designed to placate the ignorant. It’s the TLDR of draft media departments. GMs think you’re dumb enough to buy it so they’re happy to let the facade continue. There is no such thing.

Need is a marketing concept designed to be click bait. And it works! The more the talking heads use the term the more equity it has in the NFL Draft lexicon. The discourse is infinitely more stupid when someone brings up team needs. You won’t find that garbage here. The best mocks are BPA mocks that align opportunity (draft position) with the team’s mission-critical scheme elements.

Positional value and the status of current and future contracts also play a big role because GMs like John Schneider are drafting looking 3 years out. This’ a measure of the economics of not only the draft but also of the league in a broader context. Finally, NFL Free Agency which precedes the Draft is used to hedge the availability of the ideal scheme-friendly rookies, not check boxes and eliminate players due to “need” fulfilled. It’s actually the opposite of that. Teams don’t want other teams’ pricey left-overs. But they do need to manage risk and not get left holding the bag after the draft is over. Hence, the interest your team shows in free agents is a tell for which positions they’ll be targeting aggressively in the NFL Rookie Draft.

OK 12s threw together my NFL Draft mock 1.0 You’re sure to hate it. First, The Rules: AV is everything. This is a marketplace. 95% of players are fungible.

First Round: The Top 5

This is not what I WOULD DO. That’s not what mock are for. Who gives a fuck about what YOU would do? No one. LOL This’ about what the teams are going to do. It’s largely BPA coupled with what we know about interest from teams in particular players. This will change! We will get more information as we approach the draft but if you are true to your board as I am, the picks take care of themselves. There are some trades here. If you prefer to substitute a different franchise in there, EVEN THE SEAHAWKS, be my guest. You may be right.

The Next 5:

The Arizona Cardinals are a stupid loser franchise so, like the Chicago Bears, I expect them to draft the worst possible option based on pure hype and FOMO. I do not like Nabers over Odunze and there’s a good chance that Nabers is a bust. He certainly is not going to better for that franchise than MHJ or even if they kept Nuk. But hey, suck gonna suck. Same goes for the Tennessee Titans. Sorry ass cracker franchise betting on the next coming of… checks notes… Dallas Clark??? OK you mfs are welcome to him. smh

Picks 11 – 15:

A couple of assumptions in this mock are that either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields, probably Justin Fields, ends up in Atlanta and the price tag for Kirk Cousins scares off suitors making a return to the Vikings more likely. Is anyone giving a 35 year old Kirk Cousins $55M APY when Baker Mayfield is there, or Geno Smith for that matter, for $35M? FUCK no. Everyone expects all this movement every year but the financials and cost of trading draft picks has a chilling effect on the market. Lots of talk, not much action. Bo Nix appears to be a good fit for what Sean Payton likes to do, so give him to Denver. Whatever.

THE SEAHAWKS ARE ON THE CLOCK!!!!! Picks 16-20:

As I am entirely accustomed to, just speaking my preferred pick’s name makes it seriously unlikely that Seahawks will nab him when it’s their turn to select. But, I feel like this’ the man for the moment. If you’re not going all-in for a Jody Allen pool-boy at QB, you must make Geno Smith and the run game better, control the clock and let your defense breathe a little. It starts up front. Close close call with Fuaga, but you know. Go Dawgs ‘n that.

DAWG FANS, HOLLA AT YA BOI!!! Picks 21-25:

OK, nut thinking about MPJ in Mike McDaniels’ offense, towel off, then come back. Yes, Tua is too little and his brain is now scrambled eggs after about 17 concussions. Miami is not seriously considering giving him $100M gotdang guaranteed dollars. That’s ludicrous because we know anybody can run these Shanny offenses. Look at Brock Purdy. He is the very definition of a trash heap, replacement level QB. JC Latham will likely move up in future mocks. This already feels too low for him. The Brian Thomas Jr pick might put GB back in the NFC Championship game this season. Don’t get it twisted. He’s > than Nabers.

First Round: The Rest

Xavier Worthy is fast. He is also the size of a 13 year old girl. Chop Robinson feels a lot like past AZ Cardinals picks. New regime, same old look. Keon Coleman ran slower than he’d like but if you’re basing your Coleman takes on the 40 yard dash it’s because you don’t know ball. He’s the perfect compliment to Allen & Diggs in Western NY weather. Ravens will franchise Madubuike but still have some work to keep depth there. Again, Baltimore gets it. You build strength on strength. That’s the essence of the Draft; an economic hedge to aging, expensive players. SF is terrified of what their OL is going to look like after Williams retires, which is more like months rather than years away. And finally, Ladd McConkey. Yes, Mr. ‘Merica. Stop with the white boy comps! When DJ called him Brandon Stokely I never wanted to kick that dude in the nuts more than that very moment. It’s stupid shit like that what got him fired from the NFL. Brandon Stokely… FOH man.

The Top of Day 2:

More depth here at OL, WR & CB. Darius Robinson is a rare size/speed guy and I think that keeps teams interested in the Top 40 but ngl, he had a rough combine. He was lost at times in those drills. The opposite of the buzz he had man-up at the Senior Bowl. He’s hoping that memory stays with evaluators and he can improve on drills at his pro day and private workouts. At this stage, you could plug Braden Fiske IDL from FSU in there and it might be an even better fit for that pick. A fucking monster. He is the epitome of a Draft SZN mover & shaker. He could end up inside the Top 25 after all is said and done because he might have been the biggest stand-out in the entire NFL Combine.

Looking ahead: GO HAWKS!

Regardless of what happens with Geno Smith this offseason, Seattle’s in year one of what will probably be a three year rebuild, with fewer picks than John Schneider likes to traditionally start off with. He has a young core of dynamic players at the high leverage positions, OT/WR/CB/DL. The NFC West is in shambles for years to come as a result of “win now” moves from SF and LA. It worked for the Rams, and they were able to take advantage of grandpa Pete and snuck into his NFC Wild Card playoff spot where they had no business. Will it pay off for the 49ers? They continue to choke. LOL. AZ is AZ, so. Things are looking really good for the Seahawks over the next several years. Getting back on top of the division should be the least of their goals and I believe they can win now with Geno. They’d do equally well to build a three year run at playoff glory than tear down and acclimate a rookie QB, but we still don’t know what Jody Allen told John as a condition of his continued employment. Sounds like Pete used whatever remaining political capital he had with Jody to buy John a shot at fixing what Pete fucked up since trading Russ. Does that mean a trade up for a Top 3 QB this year? We shall see… GO HAWKS!